{"id":177053,"date":"2026-06-03T14:26:03","date_gmt":"2026-06-03T18:26:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/queonnda.com\/the-prediction-that-shakes-soccer\/"},"modified":"2026-06-03T14:36:30","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T18:36:30","slug":"the-prediction-that-shakes-soccer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/queonnda.com\/en\/the-prediction-that-shakes-soccer\/","title":{"rendered":"The prediction that shakes soccer"},"content":{"rendered":"

German mathematician Joachim Klement, who works as an investment advisor and is skeptical about models for predicting the future, has nevertheless predicted the outcome of the World Cup three times in a row with a system he created himself.<\/p>\n

Initially, his intention was to demonstrate that making such a forecast was practically impossible and he admits, in an interview with“Der Spiegel<\/a>” magazine, that the first time he used the model, and got it right, – in 2014 – he was “horrified”: “The first time I was horrified when Germany came out world champions in Brazil, also by the fact that all the experts had previously recalled that never before had a European team won a World Cup in South America,” he said.<\/p>\n

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Why is this mathematician betting on the Netherlands?<\/h2>\n
\"World
PHOTO: Instagram of Nuestra Naranja<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

He has then hit the mark twice more, with France in 2018 and Argentina in 2022.<\/p>\n

And now, using his own model, he sees the Netherlands – who beat Spain in the semi-final and then Portugal in the final – as champions.<\/p>\n

Although he continues to show a certain degree of skepticism regarding his own predictions.<\/p>\n

“It’s something that has nothing rational about it, it’s like playing the lottery.”<\/p>\n

“I always say that if someone bets based on my prediction who will be the next world champion, they are hopeless,” he says.<\/p>\n

The first time I was horrified<\/p>Joachim Klement<\/cite><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n

The model considers a series of fundamental variables such as the GDP per capita of each country, as this has an impact on the sports infrastructure.<\/p>\n

The size of the population, the position that soccer has in society, the national team’s place in the world ranking and a remnant of chance that Klement insists on highlighting.<\/p>\n

“It’s like flipping a coin.”<\/p>\n

“It can happen that one has predicted that the moneys will fall four times in a row on heads and not tails and that happens to be the case.”<\/p>\n

“But that doesn’t guarantee that it will happen again next time,” he explains (Filed as: World Cup 2026 Netherlands).<\/p>\n

Other variables<\/h2>\n
\"soccer,
PHOTO: Instagram of Nuestra Naranja<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Klement explains the prognosis for the 2026 World Cup by saying that the Netherlands is among the strongest footballing nations among those that have not won the tournament.<\/p>\n

Although he adds that he may have unconsciously added certain variables in the model so that, finally, the prediction does not come true.<\/p>\n

Another important factor, Klement points out in a note published online in English, is temperature.<\/p>\n

“If a country is too cold or too hot it is impossible to play soccer.”<\/p>\n

“The ideal temperature is an annual average of 14 degrees, as is the case in southern Europe and South America.”<\/p>\n

“Is it perhaps a miracle that except for England in 1966 and Germany in 1954, 1974, 1990 and 2014 all the world champions come from those regions?” he asks with some irony.<\/p>\n

Luck could be decisive<\/h2>\n
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A post shared by OnsOranje (@onsoranje).<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n