If Republicans thought Florida was their “impregnable fortress,” they woke up to a very different reality on Tuesday. In one of the most surprising victories of the day, Democrat Brian Nathan, a Navy veteran and union leader, made a historic comeback to win the 14th state Senate District in Tampa.
Brian Nathan defeated Republican Representative Josie Tomkow, who was the overwhelming favorite to inherit the seat vacated by Florida Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins of Governor Ron DeSantis’ camp.
Why is it a historic “hit”?
Florida State Senate 14 Special Election
98% Reporting:
🔵 Brian Nathan – 39,692 (50.4%)
🔴 Josie Tomkow – 39,016 (49.6%)This district was Trump +7 in 2024.
– VoteHub (@VoteHub) March 24, 2026
To understand the magnitude of what happened at Hillsborough, you only have to look at the numbers:
Change of command: In 2022, Jay Collins (Republican) won this same seat by a 9-point lead.
Trump’s trend: In 2024, Donald Trump won the county by 3 points.
Today’s result: Brian Nathan not only closed that gap, but flipped the district, adding another defeat for candidates aligned with the vision of Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump.
Navy veteran to the rescue
🚨BREAKING🚨
Democrat Brian Nathan has defeated Republican Josie Tomkow in the Florida State Senate District 14 Special Election.
This is a flip from 🔴 to 🔵. pic.twitter.com/HaWg1Yw59Y
– The Political HQ (@ThePoliticalHQ) March 24, 2026
The figure of Brian Nathan was key.
His profile as a veteran and labor advocate (union leader) succeeded in connecting with moderate and independent voters who are tired of extreme polarization.
While the national spotlight was on the Mar-a-Lago district, Nathan did the “ant” work in Tampa, focusing on local issues that hurt the community.
Florida is not so “red” anymore
With this Senate victory and Emily Gregory ‘s historic win in the Mar-a-Lago district, Democrats are sending a clear message ahead of the midterm elections in November: Florida is back in contention.
“We are seeing a pattern of results above expectations,” note analysts at Decision Desk HQ.
Voters in Florida seem to be punishing Republican management on housing, insurance and cost of living issues, giving the opportunity to new faces and citizen profiles.
Do you think veteran Brian Nathan’s win is a sign that Latinos and workers in Tampa have had enough of the same old promises, or was it just a bad night for Republicans?
Filed under: Brian Nathan wins District 14
