The possible mass deportation of undocumented immigrants in California would have a devastating effect not only on migrant communities, but also on the economy of the state and the country. This is according to a new study by the University of California, Merced, released in June 2025, which estimates that economic losses would exceed $275 billion.
The report details that the departure of more than 2.2 million undocumented migrants would have direct, indirect and induced consequences that would affect production, employment, tax revenues and the stability of key sectors such as agriculture and construction.
Large-scale fiscal and production losses
According to the study, undocumented immigrants contribute about 5% of California’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
They generate more than $23 billion annually in local, state and federal taxes.
Deportation of this population would mean:
$153 billion in direct losses in the value of labor and wages.
$212 billion if indirect effects such as disruption of supply chains are added.
Up to $275 billion when considering induced effects, such as reduced consumption in housing, food, health and transportation.
In addition, the analysis highlights that undocumented workers contribute an average of $7,000 per year in taxes.
While California gives $83 billion more to the federal government than it receives, compounding the national impact.
Severe impact on key sectors
The document warns that without migrants:
The agricultural industry would lose more than 14% of its GDP, as more than 25% of its workers are undocumented.
In construction, where one out of every four workers is undocumented, GDP would contract by 16%.
Economic losses would exceed 275 billion dollars
The research emphasizes that 80% of undocumented immigrants in California have been in the U.S. for more than 10 years.
This reflects its deep roots in the economic and social life of the state.
The situation worsens
Buzzy
This study is released at a time when ICE actions have intensified in areas such as Los Angeles, where recent raids have been reported.
Including an attempt to gain access to the Dodger Stadium parking lot on June 19, which was rejected by the sports team.
According to the latest official data, California is home to more than 10.6 million immigrants, making it the state with the largest immigrant population in the country.
Of these, about 2.2 million do not have regular immigration status, and 47% are of Mexican origin.
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