The recent imposition of global tariffs by President Donald Trump has shaken up the international trade landscape in 2025. Mexico was excluded from the new 10% tax, thanks to its strategic relationship with the U.S. and its role in the Mexico-United States-Canada Agreement (T-MEC).
However, the threat of recession for Mexico is still present, due to the high dependence on the U.S. market.
Partial relief
President Claudia Sheinbaum assured that Mexico came out “better off” than other countries by avoiding retaliatory tariffs.
U.S. officials, such as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, called the Mexican government “moderate and pragmatic” for keeping the trade dialogue open.
However, the country still faces tariffs of 25% for products outside the T-MEC framework, such as steel, aluminum and part of the automotive industry, a sector that represents almost 4% of Mexico’s GDP.
Structural dependence
Experts such as Iliana Rodríguez Santibáñez, from the Tecnológico de Monterrey, warn that more than 30% of Mexican exports do not meet the requirements of the T-MEC to enjoy zero tariffs.
This leaves many companies vulnerable to new U.S. trade policies.
The threat of recession for Mexico remains present
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In addition, the close economic relationship with the U.S. means that any contraction in the north has immediate effects in Mexico.
The director of analysis at Banco Base, Gabriela Siller, recalled that 83% of Mexican exports go to the U.S., and represent close to 26% of the national GDP.
In this context, the Ministry of Finance adjusted its growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5% to 1.9%.
The OECD forecasts a possible contraction of up to 1.3%, while Fitch and UBS predict zero growth, reinforcing the possibility of a recession for Mexico.
Advantages to be taken advantage of?
Buzzy
Despite the uncertain outlook, Sheinbaum insists that the T-MEC can attract foreign investment if companies adapt their production to the required regional content.
This could strengthen the domestic value chain.
However, specialist Rodríguez Santibáñez warns that many companies may prefer to relocate to the U.S. to avoid risks, which would limit the benefit for Mexico.
In addition, Mexico fell to last place in the reliability ranking for foreign direct investment by the global consulting firm Kearney, which reinforces the need for greater legal and political certainty.
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