German mathematician Joachim Klement, who works as an investment advisor and is skeptical about models for predicting the future, has nevertheless predicted the outcome of the World Cup three times in a row with a system he created himself.
Initially, his intention was to demonstrate that making such a forecast was practically impossible and he admits, in an interview with“Der Spiegel” magazine, that the first time he used the model, and got it right, – in 2014 – he was “horrified”: “The first time I was horrified when Germany came out world champions in Brazil, also by the fact that all the experts had previously recalled that never before had a European team won a World Cup in South America,” he said.
Why is this mathematician betting on the Netherlands?
He has then hit the mark twice more, with France in 2018 and Argentina in 2022.
And now, using his own model, he sees the Netherlands – who beat Spain in the semi-final and then Portugal in the final – as champions.
Although he continues to show a certain degree of skepticism regarding his own predictions.
“It’s something that has nothing rational about it, it’s like playing the lottery.”
“I always say that if someone bets based on my prediction who will be the next world champion, they are hopeless,” he says.
The first time I was horrified
Joachim Klement
The model considers a series of fundamental variables such as the GDP per capita of each country, as this has an impact on the sports infrastructure.
The size of the population, the position that soccer has in society, the national team’s place in the world ranking and a remnant of chance that Klement insists on highlighting.
“It’s like flipping a coin.”
“It can happen that one has predicted that the moneys will fall four times in a row on heads and not tails and that happens to be the case.”
“But that doesn’t guarantee that it will happen again next time,” he explains (Filed as: World Cup 2026 Netherlands).
Other variables
Klement explains the prognosis for the 2026 World Cup by saying that the Netherlands is among the strongest footballing nations among those that have not won the tournament.
Although he adds that he may have unconsciously added certain variables in the model so that, finally, the prediction does not come true.
Another important factor, Klement points out in a note published online in English, is temperature.
“If a country is too cold or too hot it is impossible to play soccer.”
“The ideal temperature is an annual average of 14 degrees, as is the case in southern Europe and South America.”
“Is it perhaps a miracle that except for England in 1966 and Germany in 1954, 1974, 1990 and 2014 all the world champions come from those regions?” he asks with some irony.
Luck could be decisive
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Being a host country, Klement admits, can also help.
Using all these variables, according to the mathematician, 55 percent of a country’s success over the course of a World Cup can be explained.
But 45 percent, he adds, has to do with luck.
In his explanation of the model, Klement warns that for this World Cup, having one more round of direct elimination, luck and chance may have a greater weight.
“Lower-ranked teams can beat teams that are superior in a single match,” he says (Filed as: World Cup 2026 Netherlands).
European Semifinals
Klement predicts a purely European World Cup 2026 semifinals with Portugal eliminating England and the Netherlands eliminating Spain.
Of the South Americans, the only team to reach the quarterfinals would be Lionel Messi’s Argentina, who would fall to Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal.
The biggest surprise in the forecast is the elimination of Brazil in the round of 16 at the hands of Japan.
Ecuador would fall in the same stage against Senegal, Colombia against Croatia and Uruguay against Argentina.
“Japan is on a roll.”
“They beat Germany in the last World Cup, defeated Brazil 3-2 in a friendly in October 2025 and have beaten England and Scotland in recent weeks.”
Writes Klement to defend his forecast.
The prognosis in favor of Croatia, and against Colombia, is based on the greater experience of the Croatians.
And in the match between Senegal and Ecuador, he alludes to the better form of the Senegalese.
With information from EFE
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