Mexico’s national team arrives at its final group stage game of the World Baseball Classic with everything at stake, since the match against Italy will define which teams advance to the quarterfinals of the tournament, in a scenario where a three-way tie could even occur in Group B.
Before the tournament began, the Mexican team was planning for a possible defeat against the United States, one of the tournament favorites. Under this scenario, the final match against Italy was foreseen as the decisive match to define the passage to the next round. However, the panorama changed when Italy defeated the United States, a result that opened up multiple combinations in the table and generated a scenario of high tension in the group.
Group B of the World Classic is as follows
Before Mexico’s last game against Italy in the group stage of the World Baseball Classic, the standings for Group B are as follows:
Italy: 3 wins, 0 losses
United States: 3 wins, 1 loss
Mexico: 2 wins, 1 loss
Great Britain: 1 win, 3 losses
Brazil: 0 wins, 4 losses
Great Britain and Brazil are already eliminated.
For that reason, their matches are not considered for the tiebreaker, which further complicates the calculations to define the qualifiers.
What Mexico needs to qualify
The scenario is clear: Mexico needs to beat Italy to advance to the quarterfinals of the World Baseball Classic.
A loss, regardless of the score, would automatically eliminate the Mexican national team.
If Mexico wins, a three-way tie could ensue between Mexico, Italy and the United States, with a record of three wins and one loss each.
In that case, the tie-breaker would be decided by the TBQ (Team Quality Balance) system.
How TBQ works
TBQ is calculated with the formula: Runs allowed ÷ defensive outs made.
Only matches played between the teams involved in the tie are taken into account.
In other words, the results against Brazil and Great Britain do not count for this calculation.
So far, the approximate values are:
Italy: 0.2222
Mexico: 0.2083
United States: 0.2037
The situation changed when Italy defeated the United States
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Possible scenarios
If Mexico wins: advances to the quarterfinals.
If Italy scores five runs or more in the loss, it would finish first in the group and the United States would be second.
And if Mexico wins by four runs or less, Mexico would finish as group leader and Italy would advance as second.
If Mexico loses: they will be eliminated, with Italy and the United States advancing.
If the game goes into extra innings, the TBQ calculation could change again.
An all-or-nothing duel
The confrontation between Mexico and Italy will be practically a direct elimination game in the World Baseball Classic.
Both teams are playing to stay in the tournament and any mistake could cost them qualification.
The two teams that advance from Group B will face the best teams from Group A, where teams such as Puerto Rico, Cuba and Canada are also vying to advance to the next round.
Where to watch Mexico vs Italy in the United States
Fans living in the United States will be able to watch the game at the following times and on the following platforms:
Mexico vs Italy – World Baseball Classic
Date: Wednesday, March 11
U.S. time:
or 7:00 p.m. ET
or 6:00 p.m. CT
or 4:00 p.m. PT
Broadcast in the United States:
ESPN
ESPN+
Disney+
ViX Premium.
For more information, visit QuéOnnda.com.
